June PMI: 50.3. New orders: 51.2. Production: 51.4. Manufacturing is expanding. High-tech is running hot. Traditional goods are mixed. Here are five things to do with this information.
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Ask your supplier if their order book is full or thin. AI-related factories are busy. Traditional consumer goods factories have slack. The answer tells you whether you are negotiating from strength or competing for capacity.
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Check your component lead times. If your product contains chips, circuit boards, or electronics, lead times are extending into Q3. The AI infrastructure buildout is pulling component supply chains tight. Do not assume last quarter’s timelines.
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Front-load anything facing US tariffs. New Section 301 duties hit late July. Every container that clears before the deadline avoids the additional cost. If your goods are affected, ship now. July freight will be expensive and tight. August will be cheaper.
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August and September are the sweet spot for new orders. The pre-tariff shipping rush empties out in August. Freight rates soften. Factories that were running overtime in July look at thinner August order books. Your negotiating position improves without you doing anything different.
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Domestic Chinese demand is weak. Retail sales fell in May for the first time in three years. Property is still declining. Factories that split production between export and domestic are underweight on domestic orders. They want your export business more than they are letting on.
Written by Xinya Zhang. I track Chinese factory data from the production floor. Tell me what you are sourcing