TL;DR: New US Section 301 tariffs take effect in late July 2026. Exporters are accelerating shipments to beat the deadline. Freight rates are rising as capacity tightens. The peak will last through July. August should see softening as front-loaded orders clear and vessel availability improves.
The freight market runs on deadlines. The biggest deadline of summer 2026 is the new Section 301 tariff implementation at the end of July.
What Is Happening Now
Chinese exporters are rushing goods to US ports ahead of the tariff deadline. Every container that clears US customs before the tariffs take effect avoids the additional duty. This rush is compressing weeks of normal shipping demand into a tight window.
The effect on freight rates is predictable and temporary. June rates are elevated. July rates will be higher. Spot bookings are harder to secure. Forwarders are prioritizing customers who booked space weeks ago. If you need a container in July and do not have a contract, you will pay a premium.
What Happens After July
The front-loading effect reverses quickly. Goods that were rushed out in June and July clear customs in August. Importers who front-loaded their inventory spend August absorbing it. New orders slow down. Freight demand drops. Rates come back down.
The pattern is well established. Pre-tariff peaks last 4-6 weeks. Post-tariff troughs last 6-8 weeks. August through mid-October should be a buyer’s market for freight.
Besides the Tariff
The Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved. Roughly 300,000 TEUs of container capacity is still stranded or rerouted. This has been priced into rates since April, but any escalation would push rates up regardless of the tariff cycle.
Chinese port congestion has eased from the early June peak of 650 vessels waiting. Capesize waits are down from 125 ships to roughly 80. Container terminal turnaround is improving. The weather disruptions that closed several ports in early June have passed.
What to Do
If you have not shipped yet and your goods face the new tariff, talk to your freight forwarder today. The window to beat the deadline is closing. Expect to pay a premium for July space.
If your goods are not affected by the tariff, or if your timeline allows an August shipment, wait. The post-tariff freight market will be cheaper and less congested.
Written by Xinya Zhang. I coordinate freight for my sourcing clients. Tell me where you are shipping